How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.
The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.
In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.
Here are the basic rules…
For each team work out the following,1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games. 2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100. 4. Calculate the forecast value.
In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.
The forecast value is calculated like this...
HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games
AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games
HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100
AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100
FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2
To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...
1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw. 2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100. 3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.
There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.
By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws. What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.
Here is a worked example…
The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on. West HamH4 = 3 (oldest match)H3 = 1H2 = 1H1 = 0 (most recent match)v Leeds UtdA4 = 1 (oldest match)A3 = 3A2 = 0A1 = 3 (most recent match)
Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...
FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42
If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.
Now it’s your turn…
Here is a list of all the articles in this series…
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform MethodHow To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast MethodHow To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss MethodHow To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence MethodHow To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction MethodHow To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method
Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of http://www.1x2monster.com and http://www.footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.
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